The Logical Thought
The Notebook
Puzzles with worked answers, fallacies in their natural habitat, and numbers that behave strangely. No math degree needed.
Fallacy Field Guide
They Do Not Make Them Like They Used To
Old tools and old buildings look unusually well made. Part of that is simply that we only see the ones that lasted.
Clear Thinking
The Sunk Cost Exit
You have sat through an hour of a terrible movie. Staying feels thrifty. Here is the plain reason it is not.
Fallacy Field Guide
Straw Men and Steel Men
Beating a weak copy of someone's argument feels great and proves nothing. Try building the strongest version first.
Fallacy Field Guide
Correlation Is Not Causation. So What Is It?
Everyone knows the slogan. Fewer people know the four ordinary explanations to check when two things move together.
Everyday Numbers
The Base Rate Trap
A scanner catches 99 percent of bad parts, and it just flagged yours. The chance your part is actually bad may only be about 9 percent.
Puzzles
The Three Doors Problem, Without the Shouting
A prize behind one of three doors, a host who knows where it is, and the switch that wins two times out of three.
Everyday Numbers
The Birthday Surprise: Why 23 Is Enough
In a room of just 23 people, two probably share a birthday. It sounds wrong until you count pairs instead of people.
Everyday Numbers
The Bat and the Ball
A bat and a ball cost $1.10 together, and the bat costs a dollar more. Your first answer is probably wrong, and that is the interesting part.
Puzzles
A Knights and Knaves Starter Set
Knights always tell the truth and knaves always lie. Three short puzzles, worked out line by line, and a method that solves them all.